Tom walks through his first illegal trade in chillingly matter‑of‑fact terms: a contact gives him details of an upcoming deal—“here’s the date, here’s the price, here’s the private equity firm”—and at first he just passes it to a friend who is down for the month. Tom explained the fraud triangle: a need (short‑term performance), an opportunity (he could buy up to 0.9% of the fund without approval), and a rationalization (“These other guys are doing it… I’ll do it just this one time”). Across four illegal trades, he personally made just $46,000, which he calls “the price of professional suicide.” The real draw wasn’t the money; it was the illusion of being “on the inside,” part of the in‑group he’d envied since his Wharton days.
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On top of direct military expenditures, Smetters projected an additional economic loss to the United States alone of approximately $115 billion, with a wide band of uncertainty stretching from $50 billion all the way to $210 billion. “Again, [there’s] more uncertainty at the top end,” he noted, flagging that the upside risk is greater than the downside. That broader economic impact accounts for disruptions to trade, energy markets, and financial conditions that a sustained conflict in the Middle East typically triggers.